Portugal Market Insight – Autumn 2025 A tourism boost and good summer weather conditions

Portugal’s State Budget was approved at the end of October, giving the country a collective sigh of relief and helping to avoid yet another political crisis. Even though almost all opposition parties rejected the proposal, political and economic stability prevailed, with the goal of keeping the country on track toward its objectives and boosting development across different sectors.

Fresh data from the National Statistics Institute (INE) show that the Portuguese economy grew 2.4% year-on-year in the third quarter of the year with the GDP increasing by 0.8% compared to the previous quarter. This marks an acceleration in economic activity mainly driven by private consumption.

According to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Economic Outlook released in October, Portugal’s growth forecast for 2025 was revised down to 1.9% from 2% estimated in April. For 2026, however, the IMF raised its forecast from 1.7% to 2.1%. These numbers are slightly more pessimistic than the government’s projections of 2% and 2.3%, respectively. The IMF’s forecast is roughly in line with that of the Bank of Portugal, which now sees growth at 1.9% this year and 2.2% in 2026. The IMF also expects inflation to reach 2.2% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026. INE data also show that year-on-year inflation eased to 2.3% in October, 0.1 percentage points lower than in September. As for unemployment, the IMF estimates Portugal’s jobless rate at 6.4% this year and 6.3% next year.

Still, despite these encouraging indicators, life remains tough for many Portuguese families. The cost of a basic basket of essential food items has risen by more than €7 in a year and by over €55 since 2022. With Portugal ranking as the ninth lowest in the EU in terms of living standards, and the housing crisis hitting young people and families hard, the outlook for the coming months remains challenging.

In general, boardsports market retailers felt tourism boost flow and good summer weather conditions. August, September and October helped stores to increase sales and at the same time clear Spring/Summer stock mainly apparel. Surf and skate hardgoods were showing some positive signs also. In fact, tourism growth has been key to boost last summer sales, largely thanks to the greater purchasing power of foreign visitors. Portugal was named Europe’s Leading Destination at the World Travel Awards 2025, further

cementing its status as a benchmark for quality and sustainable tourism. The sector now accounts for 16.6% of Portugal’s GDP, making it one of the pillars of the national economy.

After a very challenging first half of the year, “August and September allowed us to recover from the sales decline, with hardgoods standing out as a strong performer,” said Pedro Fernandes, Brands & Sales Director from Despomar, the biggest boardsports retail company in Portugal that has Ericeira Surf & Skate and 58 Surf stores all over the country.

Thanks to the good weather in late summer and early autumn, “lighter items like t-shirts showed the best results. However, this did not lead to a strong launch for the Fall/Winter collections, partly due to hot temperatures and delivery delays, which had a negative impact,” he pointed out.

Among standout products, “Birkenstock sandals performed very well, as they are currently fashionable and one of the key trends. We also officially launched the new JS Bull Run surfboard model by Occy, which included his visit to our store 58 Surf in Ericeira. The Xcel Comp+ wetsuit also deserves a mention, and in the apparel segment, Billabong and RVCA are leading in performance, while skate brands are facing more challenges,” he highlights.

On the strategy side, “we have made a strong push into online sales with the launch of a new Cariuma Portugal, JS Europe and 58 Surf websites to target the European market,” he reveals.

Looking ahead to Black Friday and the Christmas season, “our priority is to offer valuable proposals to customers, attract new one’s and avoid excessive discounting. We aim to strengthen our omni-channel approach (online + physical stores) through CRM,” he finishes.

For Pipeline Surf Shop located down south in Algarve’s capital Faro there’s positive signs and reasons to be happy. “Sales have been strong in recent months, with August and October standing out as the best months of the year so far, even outperforming the same period last year,” said the store’s owner, Bruno Pinto. “Sales dropped 5% in June and July compared to the previous year but in October, we saw a 15% increase in sales compared to the same period in 2024. The weather conditions and tourism are, in my view, the main factors behind these results. Since we’re a street-front store, the weather has a very direct impact on how many people come out, and that naturally affects sales. The fact that we still have so many tourists

in the city also helps a lot. We have many loyal local customers, but the reality is that tourists now make up a very significant share — and that translates into higher revenue. Hardgoods sales are now stronger than last year and two years ago also,” he explained. As for the most popular products and new trends “One of the items that’s really in fashion right now, and where we’ve seen a big jump in sales, is surf hats. We saw huge growth in this category last year, and the trend has continued this year. People’s awareness of the importance of sun protection has increased. Women’s clothing also continues to sell very well. The Fall/Winter women’s collections are excellent with great cuts and colours. And women aren’t shy when it comes to shopping,” he emphasizes. Every detail counts when it comes to winning over customers adapting and innovating. “We believe that offering a quality product combined with excellent customer service makes all the difference. Even small changes, in product display or lighting, for instance, are very important. Right now, we’re working on a project to replace the Impact Table at the entrance and one of the side displays. We’ve also launched a completely new online store. We used to run it on the PrestaShop platform, but we’ve now rebuilt it using Shopify. Visit us at www.pipeline.pt, do some shopping, and share your feedback with us,” he suggests. Among all the brands instore there’s two that that stand out. “Patagonia and Carhartt. They’re both very strong and aren’t available just anywhere. Typically, retailers who carry them already have a solid store structure and the capacity to invest, as these brands set minimum order requirements for partners. They’re one step ahead of the competition, very strong in terms of branding and communication and they avoid constant discounting on their websites. Both have also been pioneers in using organic cotton and sustainable materials, which really sets them apart. They’re at the forefront when it comes to color and trend direction,” he highlights. Keeping hope and a positive spirit is also part of the business’s DNA. “In general, I’m an optimistic person, so I look at this season with confidence. We’ve started selling more hardgoods again, which had been quite slow, and that’s encouraging. We plan to make the most of Black Friday and the Christmas season: run campaigns, growing our Instagram followers and expanding our mailing list are also among our goals,” he finished.

We are just one month away from Black Friday but the buzz already started. Retailers are doing everything to call customer’s

attention with campaigns to try push sales before heading into the Christmas season. Let’s see how one of the most important sales season unfolds.