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Portugal Market Insight – Spring 2026. Storms and a new Government

Portugal began the year by going through another electoral period with the election of a new President of the Republic. It is expected that this new representative of the people will contribute to the country’s stability and development, in coordination with the government.

Since our last report, the global landscape has shifted once again… and not for the better. The Portuguese economy grew by 1.9% in 2025, below the 2.1% recorded in 2024 and short of the government’s 2% forecast. This marked the third consecutive year of slowing national economic growth, with exports weighing on overall performance. The United States’ intervention in Iran, which triggered yet another war, disrupted the global economy through rising fuel prices and increases in the cost of several food products. This inflationary pressure impacted Portuguese families purchasing power and led to a contraction in consumption. As a consequence of the conflict in the Middle East, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its Portuguese economic growth forecast downward from 2.1% to 1.9% for 2026.

In addition to this adverse international scenario, the first quarter saw Portugal being impacted by a series of consecutive storms for almost one month that caused fatalities, disrupted telecommunications with severe damage to the national economy. Retailers experienced negative impacts on their businesses, with reduced traffic in stores and declining sales.

For Surfers Lab that has stores in Peniche, Sagres and Costa de Caparica “The market is relatively stable, although with some natural fluctuations”, said co-owner and manager, Maria João. “The first quarter was marked by a harsher winter, which consequently influenced consumer purchasing behaviour and had some impact on sales dynamics. Even so, the brands we work with continue to show solid demand, both in the high-performance segment and in more progressive surfboards, which we view as a very positive sign. As a result, the surf hardware segment is also maintaining consistent demand. In apparel, there was a slight slowdown.”
And it seems consumers are changing their minds. “Beyond “on-trend” products, we are observing a shift in consumer behaviour, with a stronger focus on individual well-being. There is growing demand for outdoor activities such as surfing, bodyboarding, with a particularly notable increase in skateboarding. At the product level, there is also greater environmental awareness: consumers are increasingly seeking eco-friendly textiles with a lower carbon footprint, as well as more natural products. A good example is the rising interest in our EQ mineral sun protection range, which has been gaining prominence in-store.”
And there’s fresh new stuff on the way. “For the Spring/Summer season we will be relocating our store in Baleal (Peniche). The goal is to offer a more attractive, larger space, organized on a single floor, with an improved customer experience. We are very excited about this new phase. The store is currently in the final stages of construction and we believe it will become a strong point of attraction for both local customers and tourists visiting the region. At the same time, the store in Caparica is also undergoing refurbishment. We expect the result to meet our customers’ expectations and contribute to an enhanced in-store experience”, she highlights.

ManelSport, a core retailer located in Santa Cruz in the West coast region, felt the impact of the circumstances. “Sales in the first quarter were very poor compared to the same period last year”, said the store owner, Carlos Dias. “Performance only began to improve towards the end of March, with the arrival of warmer days. However, during the Easter holidays, sales increased significantly. It is well understood that the first quarter is typically the weakest of the year, as the post-holiday period tends to bring a slowdown. Nevertheless, this year’s performance was largely influenced by the series of storms that affected the country. During those months, people remained at home and even online sales experienced a decline.”
As for trends, “current trends remain consistent, and it is also clear that the surfwear market is not experiencing its strongest phase. The most successful brands are Carhartt, Billabong, and Volcom, while Rip Curl and Vans are facing challenging times. Products from Hurley and New Balance Numeric are gaining increasing traction and visibility. Notably, the brand indicating the strongest growth is our own, STA, which has been expanding its offering through diversification, including organic products and competitively priced items.”
Also, the world scenario is a concern. “Regarding the conflict in Iran, a significant decline in sales has not yet been observed; however, there are clear signs that consumers are becoming more cautious. Should this instability persist, it is expected to have a negative impact on sales. Given our proximity to the beach, sales typically increase substantially during the summer months, and if its like last year, surfwear sales will rise accordingly.”
Still, there is hope for the better. “There is strong confidence that the Spring/Summer season will perform well, as most consumers have not yet transitioned to their summer look”, he concluded.